原油價格持續反彈，加拿大油氣股有投資價值嗎？
作者：西安華揚油氣設備有限公司 發布日期：2020-05-07
2018年5月7日，WTI原油期貨價格已經突破70美元，加拿大油氣股伴隨著油價上漲近期也大幅反彈，不少油氣股創52周新高。但從已經公布的季報情況看，大部分油氣股的盈利狀況非常差，不少石油公司銷售價格上不去，反而因WTI期貨價格快速上漲導致套期保值合約虧損的情況。現在能盈利主要是開采、提煉以及零售一體化的石油公司，像Suncor Energy Inc. (SU)、Imperial Oil Limited (IMO.TO)、Husky Energy Inc. (HSE.TO)，這些公司的開采業務對盈利幾乎沒有貢獻，主要靠提煉和零售賺錢。天然氣開采公司的情況就更糟糕了，北美天然氣價格持續低迷，代表加拿大天然氣價格的AECO Futures Pricing與紐約天然氣價格相比存在很大的折價，有時價格竟然是負數。
加(jia)拿大(da)(da)油(you)(you)(you)氣大(da)(da)部分需要銷售給美國(guo)(guo)。因為(wei)(wei)存在運輸成本(ben)(ben)，加(jia)拿大(da)(da)石油(you)(you)(you)價格(ge)與(yu)美國(guo)(guo)期(qi)貨市場(chang)石油(you)(you)(you)價格(ge)差(cha)價一般(ban)為(wei)(wei)10-15美元/桶。這輪油(you)(you)(you)氣價格(ge)下跌，加(jia)拿大(da)(da)的油(you)(you)(you)氣公司并沒有減產，反而增產，導(dao)(dao)致現有的油(you)(you)(you)氣管(guan)道不(bu)夠用(yong)，油(you)(you)(you)氣公司不(bu)得不(bu)借助(zhu)成本(ben)(ben)更(geng)高的鐵路運輸，導(dao)(dao)致加(jia)拿大(da)(da)與(yu)美國(guo)(guo)石油(you)(you)(you)差(cha)價擴大(da)(da)為(wei)(wei)20-25美元/桶。運輸成本(ben)(ben)的提高，直(zhi)接吃掉了油(you)(you)(you)價上(shang)漲的好處(chu)，還有很多油(you)(you)(you)氣根本(ben)(ben)都運不(bu)出去。
現(xian)(xian)(xian)在(zai)(zai)加(jia)(jia)拿大(da)油(you)(you)(you)(you)氣(qi)(qi)公(gong)(gong)司(si)負債率很(hen)高，即使開(kai)(kai)采(cai)油(you)(you)(you)(you)氣(qi)(qi)不(bu)賺(zhuan)錢，也需要(yao)通過(guo)開(kai)(kai)采(cai)的(de)(de)現(xian)(xian)(xian)金流來保證公(gong)(gong)司(si)繼(ji)續經(jing)營，油(you)(you)(you)(you)氣(qi)(qi)的(de)(de)產(chan)(chan)量(liang)還在(zai)(zai)擴(kuo)大(da)，出現(xian)(xian)(xian)了(le)(le)惡性(xing)循環。油(you)(you)(you)(you)氣(qi)(qi)公(gong)(gong)司(si)賠(pei)錢在(zai)(zai)經(jing)營，當然就不(bu)會(hui)擴(kuo)大(da)再生產(chan)(chan)了(le)(le)，油(you)(you)(you)(you)服(fu)公(gong)(gong)司(si)的(de)(de)業務(wu)量(liang)及(ji)(ji)服(fu)務(wu)價格也很(hen)難(nan)增(zeng)長，油(you)(you)(you)(you)服(fu)公(gong)(gong)司(si)也處于虧(kui)損狀態。油(you)(you)(you)(you)氣(qi)(qi)管道(dao)公(gong)(gong)司(si)的(de)(de)日(ri)子稍微好一(yi)些，但(dan)(dan)主要(yao)客戶的(de)(de)業務(wu)都(dou)不(bu)能(neng)(neng)盈利，管道(dao)公(gong)(gong)司(si)的(de)(de)盈利也很(hen)難(nan)持續。現(xian)(xian)(xian)在(zai)(zai)要(yao)縮小加(jia)(jia)拿大(da)油(you)(you)(you)(you)氣(qi)(qi)變現(xian)(xian)(xian)價格與(yu)美國油(you)(you)(you)(you)氣(qi)(qi)期貨價格差，只有(you)兩種解決辦法(fa)：一(yi)是(shi)(shi)增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)油(you)(you)(you)(you)氣(qi)(qi)運(yun)輸(shu)能(neng)(neng)力(li)，二是(shi)(shi)在(zai)(zai)產(chan)(chan)地(di)提煉及(ji)(ji)加(jia)(jia)工(gong)，但(dan)(dan)這兩種解決方案短期都(dou)無法(fa)實現(xian)(xian)(xian)。所以，加(jia)(jia)拿大(da)油(you)(you)(you)(you)氣(qi)(qi)產(chan)(chan)業現(xian)(xian)(xian)在(zai)(zai)屬于產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)過(guo)剩，只有(you)部分油(you)(you)(you)(you)氣(qi)(qi)公(gong)(gong)司(si)破產(chan)(chan)才(cai)會(hui)被(bei)動削減(jian)產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)，讓產(chan)(chan)量(liang)與(yu)逐漸增(zeng)加(jia)(jia)的(de)(de)管道(dao)運(yun)輸(shu)或者產(chan)(chan)地(di)加(jia)(jia)工(gong)能(neng)(neng)力(li)相適應(ying)。屆時，加(jia)(jia)拿大(da)油(you)(you)(you)(you)氣(qi)(qi)產(chan)(chan)業的(de)(de)春天才(cai)會(hui)到(dao)來。下面(mian)是(shi)(shi)一(yi)家油(you)(you)(you)(you)氣(qi)(qi)開(kai)(kai)采(cai)公(gong)(gong)司(si)和一(yi)家油(you)(you)(you)(you)服(fu)公(gong)(gong)司(si)在(zai)(zai)2018年一(yi)季報經(jing)營展望中對產(chan)(chan)業環境(jing)的(de)(de)描(miao)述：WCS is blended heavy oil which consists of both conventional heavy oil and unconventional diluted bitumen. The average WTI-WCS differential widened significantly in the first three months of 2018 to levels not seen since the fourth quarter of 2013. WCS weakened relative to WTI due to increasing production in Alberta and limited pipeline capacity. Pipeline outages in the fourth quarter of 2017 forced additional volumes into storage and caused differentials to widen further. In addition, the oil and gas industry has been challenged in securing rail capacity to alleviate pipeline apportionment that has increased short-term pressure on differentials.——油(you)(you)(you)(you)氣(qi)(qi)開(kai)(kai)采(cai)公(gong)(gong)司(si)Cenovus Energy Inc. (CVE.TO)The Canadian oil and natural gas industry is challenged by political and regulatory uncertainty. The inability to build pipelines and liquefied natural gas facilities to access markets is impacting industry cash flow and investor confidence. As a result, heavy oil and natural gas prices are heavily discounted compared to U.S. prices, limiting improvement in E&P cash flows and increased oilfield service activity.——油(you)(you)(you)(you)服(fu)公(gong)(gong)司(si)CWC Energy Services Corp. (CWC.V)因此，除了(le)(le)少數(shu)業務(wu)在(zai)(zai)外(wai)國的(de)(de)油(you)(you)(you)(you)氣(qi)(qi)公(gong)(gong)司(si)外(wai)，主要(yao)業務(wu)在(zai)(zai)加(jia)(jia)拿大(da)的(de)(de)油(you)(you)(you)(you)氣(qi)(qi)、油(you)(you)(you)(you)服(fu)和管道(dao)公(gong)(gong)司(si)都(dou)沒有(you)投資(zi)價值。最近是(shi)(shi)市場情緒推(tui)高油(you)(you)(you)(you)氣(qi)(qi)股，等情緒回落，油(you)(you)(you)(you)氣(qi)(qi)股價格不(bu)太可能(neng)(neng)維持在(zai)(zai)現(xian)(xian)(xian)在(zai)(zai)位置，而(er)是(shi)(shi)伴隨(sui)著(zhu)慘(can)烈的(de)(de)去產(chan)(chan)能(neng)(neng)過(guo)程而(er)大(da)幅下跌。
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